Web 2.0, 3.0, 4.0.. huh?

Benn Glazier discovered a thought provoking article What comes after social networking and posted the link on Facebook.

It got me thinking about the future and here is an excerpt from my comment on the Read/Write Web blog.

Let me start by saying, "The future of the web is not about technology, we are all people and in the end nothing changes. We all need food, shelter and water. Social interaction (on many levels) and creativity is a plus, that gives our massive frontal lobe something to chew on."

I loved Emre’s article, he provoked thought. However, the group were just too technical in their thinking. This web stuff is not about technology, the next big thing or web 2.0, 3.0 or 4.0. It is about the fact that us humans want to do things efficiently (easier), faster and with the confidence (trust) that we are doing it the best way possible (that is, we trust what other people in our social network have told us).

To critique the article (and thanks for inviting critique and accepting the huge volume of it).

Information
The article misses out information sites that were at the start of the internet boom. Therefore, search comes first… finding the stuff you want. Yes it was improved, but it still came first. AND still is most important, and that is why social networks are important, I will get to that later.

eComm
Next, eComm was a stage, agreed, but as didn’t work because it was poorly designed and implemented. As your #10 commenter said, things go around in circles. Yes, eComm is having a rebirth. Just look at internet banking. Originally the banks stuffed it up big time, but now they engage usability consultants on everything and have improved things dramatically.

So we (I) agree that search was around earlier. The next and most opportune creation is the fact that search is now augmented by social networks. Look at Digg and similar. You are basing your decisions on what others have said. Look at Facebook… I type in my good friend’s name, knowing I can invite them to Facebook. I scroll quickly through all the John Smiths that are registered and don’t see my friend. I give up and think. ‘Who does he know? Ah, yes, he knows Sal, my mate who is really tech savvy. Sal has hooked up with me on face book and also with John’.. Bingo – I find my mate straight away! Phew.

Single Sign On
Emre mentions Single Sign On, the main reason that doesn’t work is that legacy systems are co crappily designed that they don’t integrate. The invent of XML and other technologies helps us with this and it will improve but as #10 says, as the tech improves it WILL come back.

Joost
Emre talks about Joost, a new way of watching TV online, as a way of the future.  It looks useful, but the site has a terrible design, half the page designated to rainbow colours… whattda!?

It may be the next big thing, but only if it is designed in a usable way and actually leverages other technologies to engage people and social networks to provide recommendations on great content.

So why is Facebook successful?
A number of reasons:
1) It is so easy to sign up. I was chatting to a friend in Brazil on Messenger and invited her. Within seconds she was registered on Facebook and when I woke up the next day and she had found 5 other friends… too easy.
2) It is social… my wife hates calling people on the phone. Now she can keep up to date with mates easily, kinda unobtrusively even. She can even chat with them without feeling like she is bothering them. It is asynchronous… in my/your own time – that makes it easy!
3) It services people’s ‘Paris nosiness’. You can peep into people’s lives and never get caught!

Where to next then?
Right, my basic premise is. We are all people and the web (tech) just enables us to achieve our goals in different ways. We are satisfying needs quicker, easier and cheaper. We have less intrusion, with more confidence and with less emotion that we would face to face. It enables us to do things we could have never dreamed 50 years ago. Free global phone calls, deaf people can use Skype to have conversations; knowledge can be accessed, stored and created extremely easily, RSS feeds mean that we don’t have to score heaps of sites to find out the things we are interested in.
But our needs haven’t changed…

So how does the internet and it opportunities mirror everyday life?
I met my wife 3 years ago, she had nice ex boyfriends that I ‘still’ get along with. She hung out with some of the same people as me. We were part of the same group…BUT… we met online at RSVP.com.au. We had the same criteria for a relationship and the level of trust that we needed to have a first date… all online.
And it all comes down to search. If it wasn’t for good search we would have never found each other.

That brings me to trust.
We trusted that our profiles were a true representation of who we really are. And it worked. In many situations trust creates action. You trust that your friend used a lawyer or orthopedic surgeon previously, and had a good experience. So you yourself go and use the same people.

I was part of LinkedIn and the CEO of a major Australian transport company met me on the basis of that. It was unlikely I could have met him any other way. You trust that someone you have hooked up with on Facebook liked an article and you read the same things. I did that… Thanks Benn now I have written this article!

As people begin to recognise Facebook and they come to understand it more, so will the trust build. People will bring back the ecommerce and dating. They will do things that make their lives easier.

Add emotion to the interaction and the trust will build even more. People will buy-in more to the interaction because they can see how other people feel. Emoticons in chat do just that. Oh, and I just added the Moods application to facebook

What else makes us accept this online stuff?
It helps us with the lack of community in Western society. Many of us no longer approach our friends and family to discuss pregnancy or death. Instead we log onto MySpace or similar to discuss these things with complete strangers!  Facebook allows us to keep up to date with what friends are doing, and even feeling, at any time.

It keeps our ‘nosiness gene’ alive, as I mentioned above. You can see who your friends are dating, what they are eating or listening to and even comment on it!

The web also gives us a way to escape from real life. Just like alcohol, drugs or TV. If we can get trusted recommendations from others about how to do this even more successfully, then I’m all for it!

As # 12 says, I don’t believe we are lazy. People just want things to be stress free, the path of least resistance, and easy. This has been the case of thousands of years. The goal of many religions to help people live a stress free life. Just look at the practice of meditation in Christianity or Buddhism. We want all things free of stress - easy. Thank you The Internet!

Then what?
So where is all this headed? Well nowhere… our basic needs in life will always be the same, as they have been for thousands of years. Perhaps we can do things in a better way… My bet is that there will be a ‘Facebook’ type site that has movies, games, business, family and social components built in; all with a high level of trust. We can’t get away from the fact that we are social beings with the need to do things easily. Joost ‘on its own’ will never suffice, bring on integration.